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USDA Report Projects Growth of Brazilian Specialty Coffee Despite Market Whiplash

roasted brazilian coffee

As the Brazilian specialty coffee industry continues to build infrastructure and gain global visibility, it is also being tested by the same forces affecting the broader coffee trade, including U.S. tariff whiplash, tight supplies and changing demands of large buyers.

A March 6 report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service — representing staff assessments, not official U.S. government policy — outlines opportunities and challenges within the Brazilian specialty coffee sector as opposed to “traditional” or “conventional” coffee.

Despite coming from a U.S. agency, the report notably does not mention the Trump administration tariffs that rattled the Brazilian coffee sector, reshaped Brazilian export dynamics and strained trade with the U.S. All green coffees are now exempt from U.S. tariffs.

Classifying and Quantifying ‘Specialty’

The report notes that quantifying the Brazilian specialty coffee market remains a challenge without a standalone export category, while the industry tends to rely on the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council’s (CECAFÉ) broader “differentiated coffee” category as a proxy for “specialty.”

By that measure, differentiated coffees accounted for approximately 20% of Brazil’s total coffee exports in 2025, with 8.1 million bags shipped. That was down 11% from the prior year, according to the report.

Specialty coffee classification in Brazil is also expected to change now that the Brazil Specialty Coffee Association (BSCA) has partnered with the U.S.- and Europe-based Specialty Coffee Association to adopt the SCA Coffee Value Assessment (CVA) as the “official protocol” for evaluating coffees.

coffee farm

The report also noted that quality improvements in Brazilian robusta (conilon) coffees have driven stronger demand and fetched higher prices, while necessitating better quality assessment methods. “In 2026, the SCA plans to revise its flavor descriptor lexicon to include attributes specific to robusta coffee,” the report states.

The authors also argue that perceived gaps in the cataloging of specialty coffee have hindered the country’s specialty sector. They argue that World Coffee Research’s robust, publicly available coffee varieties catalogue “currently excludes many important Brazilian cultivars, including those that produce exceptionally high-quality, high-scoring coffee.” However, the catalogue is not designed as a market guide or price reference tool.

Specialty Growth and Trade

The report says Brazil’s specialty coffee sector has benefited from marketing initiatives, a rising number of quality-focused producers and stronger research and cooperative networks. Yet the sector faces ongoing challenges regarding scalability, as smaller farmers experience uneven access to credit, post-harvest processing infrastructure and technical support.

“These structural barriers hinder wider participation in the specialty coffee sector, particularly for small producers,” the authors wrote.

The United States remained the main destination for CECAFÉ’s “differentiated coffees” last year, importing 1.3 million bags from January to December 2025, equivalent to 16% of the total, followed by Germany (15%), Belgium (10%), the Netherlands (9%) and Italy (6%).

The authors noted that the overall trend is for “growth in the specialty coffee segment, with increasing international demand for quality, traceability and sustainability.”

Brazil remains the world’s second-largest coffee-consuming country behind the U.S., and domestic consumption is central to that demand dynamic. A tension exists in the domestic market as consumers seek higher-quality, differentiated coffees, yet coffee prices have escalated.

A survey commissioned by ABIC in September 2025 revealed that 24% of Brazilian respondents reported reducing their coffee consumption, with 39% opting for cheaper coffee alternatives. At the same time, specialty coffee grew by 15% annually in 2025 and now represents 5% to 10% of Brazilian coffee consumption by green coffee volume.

Overall, the report offers a sunny projection for the Brazilian specialty coffee sector, citing “strong international demand, quality improvements and targeted promotion,” including the “Brazil. The Coffee Nation” campaign, which runs through August 2027.


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