Coffee production in Vietnam is now forecast to reach 30.8 million 60-kilogram bags in the 2025/26 market year (October to September), up about 6% from last season as farmers respond to high prices, according to the latest semi-annual coffee report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).
The update trims the USDA’s earlier 31-million-bag forecast from May, but still implies production will rise about 6% year over year, in line with some expert estimates that see output climbing by up to 10%.
Vietnam remains the world’s top robusta supplier, with the species responsible for 96% of the country’s anticipated output this year.
[Note: This is part of an ongoing series of DCN stories that explore USDA FAS country-level coffee reports, which are produced by different authors and field offices around the world.]
Production and Replanting
Higher prices have encouraged farmers to invest more in fertilizer and crop care, while government data shows slightly expanding harvested area in key robusta zones. At the same time, Typhoon Kalmaegi and heavy rains during harvest cut yields in parts of the Central Highlands, tempering an even greater production jump.
The report flags a slower-than-planned replanting program in the Central Highlands, where only about 74,500 hectares have been renewed out of a 91,000-hectare target. Many growers are reluctant to pull out old trees while prices are high or are switching some land to crops such as durian, avocado and pepper, which diversify income but could cap long-term coffee output, according to the analysis.
Exports and Prices
Total coffee exports in 2025/26 are forecast at 27.3 million bags, up 8% from an estimated 25.2 million bags this season. Green coffee shipments are expected to reach 24 million bags, with the rest coming from roasted and soluble products as Vietnam continues to expand processing capacity.
Record export prices — averaging about $5,642 per ton, a 143% increase over the previous year — have pushed export earnings to roughly $8.3 billion, roughly in line with recent Vietnamese government statements.
Export Markets
Germany remains the largest buyer of Vietnamese coffee, taking around 3.2 million bags in 2024/25, followed by Italy, Spain, Japan and the United States. Exports to Germany grew about 6%, while shipments to Japan fell 20% and exports to the United States slipped 3% to roughly 1.5 million bags.
The European Union, which buys about 60% of Vietnam’s coffee exports, recently labeled Vietnam a “low-risk” country under the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). The EU’s decision to delay full EUDR implementation until December 2026 gives Vietnamese exporters more time to build traceability systems and may help protect access to their largest market, according to the report.
Domestic Consumption
FAS raised its forecast for domestic consumption to 4.9 million bags in 2025/26, up from 4.8 million this season and 4.2 million in 2023/24. The report cites a fast-growing cafe culture, a young urban population, booming instant coffee sales and a rebound in tourism.
Local Prices and Stocks
High prices frame the entire report. Local robusta prices averaged roughly 118,000 Vietnamese dong per kilogram (about $4.45) in 2024/25, about 125% higher than a year earlier, while export prices reached a record.
However, the report noted that the local price was down from June through September while the export price for robusta remained high.
The FAS office noted that gauging stocks in Vietnam is challenging, and it estimated ending stocks in 2025/26 at just under 900,000 bags.
“Farmers increasingly monitor futures markets on their phones and hold beans when they expect prices to rise, while exporters move to sell more quickly if they fear a downturn, making it harder to gauge national stock levels,” the report states.
Taken together, the semi-annual update portrays Vietnam as maintaining its role as a robusta powerhouse, with production, exports and domestic demand all rising along with record prices, even as slower replanting, crop diversification and higher imports hint at structural shifts.
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